Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 13.204048 15.103014 17.147466 19.508363 22.155547 25.028116 28.377106
2025-05-25 10.414603 12.992916 15.983291 19.692195 24.151913 29.323923 35.757146
2025-06-01 8.901630 11.744167 15.201554 19.687113 25.320156 32.124660 40.927189
2025-06-08 7.651716 10.623717 14.397856 19.496286 26.150981 34.483238 45.637652
2025-06-15 6.834370 9.916480 13.978077 19.656834 27.314368 37.194445 50.802571
2025-06-22 6.306710 9.521552 13.901029 20.214478 28.976178 40.582303 56.968825
2025-06-29 5.619259 8.818404 13.319054 20.001193 29.533032 42.478924 61.189964
2025-07-06 4.821720 7.867343 12.292405 19.057718 28.973893 42.776394 63.186748
2025-07-13 4.522535 7.627459 12.263393 19.527846 30.419913 45.892930 69.209837
2025-07-20 4.231050 7.367153 12.173838 19.885036 31.698579 48.806774 75.049824
2025-07-27 3.875127 6.967440 11.832956 19.823525 32.329042 50.786367 79.597090
2025-08-03 3.522598 6.538106 11.407116 19.589270 32.663977 52.320352 83.524693
2025-08-10 3.249425 6.223964 11.150975 19.619372 33.429254 54.566015 88.672756
2025-08-17 3.038005 5.997440 11.020451 19.840860 34.503895 57.328085 94.726100
2025-08-24 2.806502 5.710849 10.761955 19.822675 35.174306 59.470565 99.883540
2025-08-31 2.570265 5.392040 10.420864 19.635283 35.544655 61.140281 104.349376
2025-09-07 2.410974 5.202315 10.289947 19.795200 36.491346 63.755950 110.402991
2025-09-14 2.323188 5.142525 10.386568 20.356947 38.141912 67.573292 118.531039
2025-09-21 2.135972 4.866894 10.064256 20.142107 38.431370 69.149463 123.044381
2025-09-28 1.873616 4.411388 9.367717 19.192752 37.370086 68.408348 123.671390
2025-10-05 1.805589 4.356252 9.434233 19.665825 38.865307 72.047615 131.765520
2025-10-12 1.728804 4.274863 9.442290 20.025277 40.166499 75.397120 139.479443
2025-10-19 1.612321 4.094875 9.239689 19.963375 40.684419 77.398780 144.943391